mercoledì, Settembre 22

Greece, foggy political landscape in the parliamentary elections field_506ffbaa4a8d4

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The double scenario of a multi-party government or of a big coalition.

An eventual failure of the ANEL party to enter the parliament, will make more difficult and complicated for SYRIZA to find acceptable governmental partners, in the case that SYRIZA will be the first party in the elections, which is the most probable, Alexis Tsipras has repeatedly declared that will not accept to form a government either with the New Democracy party and the POTAMI party, a new small party of 5% approximately, headed by the TV journalist Stavros Theodorakis.

Apart the party of ANEL, Alexis Tsipras left also a window open for cooperation with PASOK, under the condition that all those who have been involved in corruption scandals and who gave unreserved support to the “mnemonio” austerity policies, are excluded from governmental posts.

It is very difficult for Alexis Tsipras to insist on this policy after the elections. Even if the ANEL party manages to enter the parliament, its number of deputies will not be enough to make up a parliamentary majority. Will not be enough even the addition of the deputies of a second party (PASOK). Most probably, it will be necessary to ask also for the deputies of a third party, eventually of the POTAMI.

It is excluded that the Lafazanis party will accept to participate to the government. It is excluded also that the SYRIZA party will manage to achieve parliamentary self-sufficiency, even with the privilege of 50 cents, reserved to the first party by the electoral law.

It is obvious that, after the elections, the SYRIZA party of Alexis Tsipras will be obliged to persue a small coalition government with the small parties, which will be present in the parliament. If for any reason proves that impossible, the other alternative will be the formation of a big coalition government eventually under the guise of a national unity or a national purpose government.

Such a development, it would be a tremendous change in the political landscape and the political culture of Greece and will function also as a catalyst for other political changes and developments. The “ Chrysi Avgi” extreme right wing party, for example, which, most probably, will occupy the third position in the coming elections, it would be, in the case of a big coalition, the main opposition in the parliament.

Another important development is the rising skepticism on the euro and even on Europe and its policies. For the first time, after many years, the feeling of absence of any optimism for the future is very heavy and general . Nobody expects  good news, after the elections, irrespective of who is going to win and to be in government. The perspective is new heavy taxes, cuts of pensions and little hope for development and jobs.

Apart all those problems, the country,as Italy, faces also a real tsunami of refugees and illegal immigrants, which creates a let of anxiety by its dimensions and the absence of a clear European policy for an effective answer to that.

Definitely, the forth coming elections in Greece are very different from the past and the only hope they promise is an eventual relative stability, which is much needed in a country tired by successive elections.

 

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