venerdì, Settembre 24

Ethiopia: it is total war in Tigray The military campaign carried out by Prime Minister Ahmed is very dangerous for the whole country. Doomsday is about to start

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The historic Tigray region has become a theater of war. Violentclashes are taking place between the loyalist forces of Prime Minister Abiy Hamed and the Northern Division, made up of the elite Ethiopian army under strict control of the TPLF Tigrinyamovement. The French NGO Doctors Without Borders revealsthat it is receiving hundreds of wounded from the national army in the hospitals it runs. The most seriously injured are transferred to the regional hospital in Gondar, the historic medieval city that is a UN World Heritage Site.

The media controlled by the Federal Government speak of a “sadunintended war caused by the Tigrinya outlaws“, giving partialand confused reports of mythical victories. An official militarysource in the nearby Amhara region, alongside federal troops, told ‘Reuters’ that clashes with Tigrinya forces in Kirakir had killednearly 500 soldiers on the Tigrinya side. The government claimsto control 4 major cities in Tigray.

The reality on the front seems diametrically opposite. The Northern Division, flanked by the regional militia and police and by thousands of young Tigrayans, is allegedly inflicting (according to initial reports) huge losses to the national army. Independent sources, indirectly confirmed by leaks from the General Staff, gathered by ‘Al Jazeera’ are reporting the samenews. Three security sources in Amhara who work with federaltroops said that the Ethiopian army is suffering heavy losses. In the nearby city of Dansha, in the Amara region, hospitals are reported to be full of seriously wounded from the regular army.

Even the bombing of military posts near the airport of the capital of Tigray, Mekelle, seems to be far from the military success announced by Addis Ababa. The missiles and artillery may nothave been destroyed if not minimally. According to two diplomatic sources and a National Army General, the air strikewas not accurate and the damage reported could be negligible. This is what they declared to ‘Reuter’. Faced with the fierceresistance of the Tigrinya troops, the federal government (in needof a quick victory) is bombarding the civilian population.

According to the Tigray government, P.M. Abiy has order 10 indiscriminate air strikes against the main cities of the northern region, including Mekelle. According to UN sources, 900,000 people are already displaced. The number of civil casualties remains a state secret. The Federal Government has no interest in disclosing it for obvious reasons of international image. The Tigrinya regional government also to avoid demoralizing the troops and the population.

The statement by the new army chief Birhanu that the army hascontrol of several cities near the border with Eritrea, including Dansha and Shire is seriously questioned. The Sudanese newspaper ‘Al Rakouba’ reports that thousands of soldiers of the national army have deserted crossing Sudan to save themselves from the ‘Tigray Tigers‘.

Are the alleged victories obtained by the Tigrinya resistance the result of ethnic propaganda? Difficult to verify as the blackout of telephone and internet communications in Tigray (now extendedto other areas of the country) makes it difficult to verify the situation on the front. The federal government hopes for a lightning victory but evident difficulties are emerging in obtainingit. These difficulties, hidden by alleged military victories claimedby the Prime Minister, emerge from indisputable clues. Amongthem the dismissal of the Army Chief of Staff, the Chief of Intelligence and the Foreign Minister, highlights that the war for the federal government is not going well.

The defection of the elite forces of the Northern Division was alsoa severe blow to the Nobel Peace Prize. Demeke Mekonnen, deputy prime minister was appointed foreign minister while the very loyal Genrale Birhanu Jula from deputy head of the Armed Forces passes to Supreme Commander. Abiy and military leadershave publicized the successes of Ethiopian soldiers against forcesloyal to the TPLF, but a communications blackout in the regionmade it difficult to verify their accounts.

The military campaign carried out by the Prime Minister is verydangerous for the whole country. Doomsday is about to break out. Despite this, Abiy continues to support the offensive and sendyoung reservists to the front who are massacred by experiencedTigrinya troops. International requests for dialogue are systematically ignored.

In a report drafted last Saturday, the United Nations says nine million people are at risk of displacement as the conflict escalates, warning Wednesday’s government statement on a state of emergency in Tigray was blocking food and other aid. .

The Secretary General d In the UN Antonio Guterres contactedthe head of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat and Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, as president of the IGAD region group, expressing the concern that the conflict couldnot only break Ethiopia, but also reverberate in the region and attract outside forces. “The situation in Tigray is one of the manycrises in the country, but it could escalate, attracting otherEthiopian regions, also threatening neighboring Sudan and Eritrea,” warns Martin Plaut, a longtime observer of politics in the Horn of Africa.

Countries in the region fear that the fighting could spark an all outcivil war and destabilize the Horn of Africa, one of the continent’smost fragile regions. The UN has warned of a serioushumanitarian crisis if up to 9 million people flee all-out fighting or Tigray remains largely isolated from the world.

Appeals from all over the world reach the Prime Minister to stop this crazy adventure. Unfortunately they remain unheard. In a televised speech on Sunday, Abiy accused Tigray regional leadersof preparing for war with the federal government since 2018. The group allegedly stole development funds to purchase weapons and train militias. An unproven accusation that sounds ridiculousgiven that the TPLF was in control of the army before exiting the government coalition last January. The TPLF still enjoys excellentsupport from various armed divisions.

Tigray leaders complained that they were unfairly targeted in court cases for corruption, removed from top positions and scapegoats for the ills of the country under Abiy. This appallingcivil war is nothing more than a feud within the regime betweenthe TPLF excluded by one of its loyalists who turned against to establish their own regime: The Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy Hamedpraised as a great democrat and progressive leader.

So democratic that he favored the arrest in the capital on Sundayof 10 senior Tigray city officials, accusing them of ‘betraying the people’ and of working ‘to destabilize peace in our city and engage in cruel and terrorist motives’. To remedy the damage, Abiy delivered a speech intended for the West with conciliatory tones, inviting Ethiopians to avoid discriminating againstTigrayans, who make up about 6% of the country’s 110 millionpeople. “I would like to reiterate that no brother or sister of the Tigrinya should be the victim of illegal acts based on identity, and this responsibility rests with all Ethiopians“, he said.

At the moment the only fact is that Abiy is resisting diplomaticpressure to stop the offensive African countries on Thursday urgedEthiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to stop a militarycampaign in the Tigray region to avert civil war, but sources havesaid he showed no sign of giving up from confrontation with a powerful ethnic faction.

Sources said behind-the-scenes efforts are underway to encouragetalks, spurred on by the African Union. But the initiative was opposed by the Addis Ababa authorities who insist on eliminatinga threat posed by the TPLF.

Debretsion Gebremichael, the President of the Tigrinyagovernment and Secretary of the TPLF seems to have more diplomatic cunning than the Prime Minister. He told Reuters thatthe regional government is ready to stop the war and sit at the negotiating table.

There are also fears of reprisals against the Tigrayans elsewhere. Addis Ababa police reported Sunday that the government arrested162 people in possession of firearms and ammunition on suspicionof supporting Tigray forces. Additionally, as the Abiy governmentmobilizes troops in Tigray, other areas already troubled by ethnicviolence may face a security vacuum, analysts say.

Meanwhile, confidential sources report that the Egyptian air force is moving medium-range missiles and a squadron of Mig-29M2s capable of carrying ballistic missiles. The Great Reinassancemega dam in Ethiopia is the target?

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