mercoledì, Gennaio 19

Ethiopia – Eritrea: imminent a second military offensive in Tigray It is unlikely that this new offensive will definitively resolve the situation and end the conflict in Tigray in favor of Afewerki and Abiy


We are on the 85th day of the conflict in Tigray, which began on November 3, 2020 and declared closed by the federal government (for compelling propaganda reasons) on November 28, 2020. Anyone with a minimum of information about Ethiopia and its recent history associated with any knowledge in military matters can easily understands that in just 25 days it was impossible to defeat an “hostile” force that numbered 250,000 combat men before the conflict, equipped with modern weapons with popularsupport and support from Sudan and Egypt.

Despite the information blackout in Tivray (still in force), the heavy censorship exercised by the federal government on the national media, the heavy espionage (which in some cases comes to real intimidation) aimed at various foreign journalists present in the country, to who are forbidden to go to TIgray, and to the Propaganda conceived by the Prime Minister, Nobel Prize Winner for “War” Abiy Ahmed Ali; after 85 days it is finally possible to understand the dynamics of this civil war.

The conflict did not break out due to the “alleged” TLPF attack on a military camp of the Northern Command of the federal army. It has been secretly planned since September 2020 by two main actors in the carnage: the bloodthirsty Eritrean dictator Isaias Afewerki and the “reformer and democrat” Abiy, the darling of the West who turned out to be nothing more than a despot in strict consistency with the most dark of the authoritarian and dictatorial power of the time of the Amhara Emperors.

To try to obtain a lightning victory, the Ethiopian Prime Minister has channeled an invasion force on Tigray made up of at least 80,000 Federals, an unknown (but significant) number of Amhara militiamen and about 12,000 Eritrean soldiers (according to sources provided to us by the Eritrean opposition in exile, not verifiable on the ground). To these must be added 2,500 young Somali soldiers who were in training in Eritrea and forced to fight in Tigray – Of these young people only 500 would have survived, creating a popular uprising in Somalia that threatens to shake the already weak government of President Mohamed AbdullahiMohamed Farmajo.

There are three reasons for the conflict. For Abiy to eliminate a dangerous political opponent who has ruled the country for the past 28 years (1991 – 2019) with an excellent army, finances and international connections. For the dictator Afewerki to settle all pending bills with the TPLF remained unresolved since the days of the Independence of Eritrea and worsened with the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict. For the Amhara leadership, to use Abiy in order to establish itself as a politically dominant ethnic group in the country and restore the absolute power enjoyed during the Solomon dynasty of the Emperors of which the last exponent was Ras Tafari Makonnen, known as Haile Selassie (Power of the Trinity). The ambitions of absolute power of the Amhara leadership go beyond Ethiopian border, with the claiming of Sudanese border territories risking to spark a regional conflict, linked to the Great Ethiopian Reinnassance: GERD dam.

Despite the unprecedented violence committed against civilians in Tigray which for all international legal effects can be cataloged as war crimes and perhaps as crimes against humanity, 85 days after the outbreak of hostilities not only the TPLF is able to fight still, inflicting heavy casualties on the feds, and the Addis government controls few areas of Tigray except the capital Mekelle and the city of Shire, but the conflict is putting both the national integrity and the future of the Great Warrior named Abiy at serious risk. Called now “£Menelik III” for his thirst for power and “Ethiopian Graziani” for the atrocities committed in Tigray and Oromia.

Prime Minister Abiy needs a total and definitive victory at all costs, no matter the price to be charged to the Tigrinians and the Ethiopian population in general. African diplomatic sources and the Eritrean opposition in exile in Europe report an imminent large joint offensive by the Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara militias to annihilate the TPLF. News also confirmed by the Eritrean opposition movement Abri Harnet (Freedom Friday). The decision to launch this second offensive was made in light of the growing pressure from the international community to stop the war.

According to information from reliable sources, the dictatorial regime of Asmara promised to send another 32,000 soldiers to destroy the defensive positions of the TPLF. The Addis Ababa government will increase its headcount in Tigray by another 20,000. Only the Amhara militias will not receive reinforcements as the bulk of the militias at the disposal of the Amhara leadership is busy monitoring and suppressing a possible Oromo revolt and is involved in the conflict (at the moment of low intensity) insideSudan border territories. According to the sources, the offensive would include the indiscriminate use of bombs and missiles with high explosive charge, multiple fragmentation and unspecified chemical weapons.

There are strong and justified concerns that such an attack could make the humanitarian disaster in the region infinitely worse than it already is. There is fear for the millions of people involved in the war, including tens of thousands of Eritrean refugees, who are already in a precarious situation in Tigray, especially after the (unofficial) statements by General of the Ethiopian Federal Army General Staff indicating a clear will to annihilate the Tigrinyapopulation considered “mongrel dogs loyal to their master TPLF”.

Sources inside East African Intelligence confirm the preparations underway for the second Ethiopian-Eritrean military offensive but doubt that this will definitively resolve the situation and put an end to the conflict in Tigray in favor of the two Warlords: Afewerki and Abiy. Doubts also shared by Rashid Abdi Sahan, African conflict expert from Kenya “The TPLF has in its DNA a deep guerrilla spirit capable of resisting external pressures, even when cornered. They said they will die down to the last person. Certainly they should not be underestimated ”.

The second offensive faces three serious problems. Numerous desertions are occurring in the Eritrean contingent already present in Tigray. Young Eritrean soldiers try to escape to Sudan so as not to be forced to slaughter old people and children and to rape women (pregnant one included). Note that in the territories controlled by them, the Eritrean soldiers organized looting at large scale as happened during the civil war in Yugoslavia with lots of columns of trucks that carry all precious goods to Asmara across the border as war booty for the dictator Afewerki and his entourage of loyal Generals. Nor have the Orthodox churches and historical monuments been spared, first looted and then destroyed.

The bulk of the Eritrean reinforcements that will be sent for the second offensive is made up of young university students in military service with little military preparation. Special and elite troops are kept at home for fear that the population fed up with the cruelest dictatorship in Africa will rise up against the regime,taking the opportunity of the Tigray crisis. In addition, at least 2 Eritrean divisions are said to be on stand-by to join Ethiopian forces in an invasion of Sudan. To prevent the entry of Eritrean troops, the Sudan General Staff has already mobilized two of its best fighting brigades on the border with Eritrea: the 17th and 61st brigades.

There are also numerous desertions among Ethiopian federal soldiers. Furthermore, the Addis government cannot deploy all its forces (about 160,000 men) on the Tigray front as Federals troopsare needed to support the probable attack on Sudan by the Amhara militias – Eritrean troops and to ensure control of national security. There are rumors of intense subversive activity in Cairo to spark a revolt in Oromia.

Preparations for the second offensive with strong Eritrean participation come just as the United States has called for the immediate withdrawal of the Eritrean forces currently present in Tigray. A State Department spokesperson in an email to the Associated Press cited “credible reports of looting, sexual violence, assaults in refugee camps and other human rights abuses. There is also evidence of Eritrean soldiers forcibly repatriating refugees. Eritreans from Tigray to Eritrea, “the spokesman said. The statement reflects the Biden administration’s new pressure on the government of Ethiopia to end the fighting in Tigray, open a peace dialogue with the TPLF and avoid the balkanization of Ethiopia and regional war.

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